re: 12-1 Michigan > 11-1 Notre Dame > 12-1 Ohio State

Let’s say Notre Dame loses to Syracuse or USC, Alabama loses to Georgia, and no other surprises occur. Here are the basics according to my metric:

School - record - SOS rank
Notre Dame - 11-1 - 23
Oklahoma - 12-1 - 32
Alabama - 12-1 - 38

(This assumes Clemson, Michigan, and Georgia are the top 3.)

Tough choice for the committee. Based on this alone, Alabama is a clear odd man out unless we place literally any mathematical or rhetorical weight on margin of victory, in which case Alabama is a considerable selection. As for Notre Dame and Oklahoma, it’s a matter of how much you count the difference in winning percentage vs the difference in SOS, and there’s really no right or wrong there.

This is why I hate that there is a committee. It is entirely possible to employ a rigid, transparent, mathematical system of determining these things.

The main debate in such a system would be how to account for margin of victory. Simple, I say: don’t use margin of victory at all, but rather account for how much time of the game the winner held their final lead. For example, if you take the opening kick to the house and never look back, you get near-maximum MOV points since you led for 59:50 of the game. If you win in overtime, no MOV points since you led for 0:00.