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re: 12-1 Michigan > 11-1 Notre Dame > 12-1 Ohio State
Posted on 11/6/18 at 10:35 am to xiv
Posted on 11/6/18 at 10:35 am to xiv
quote:
Not impossible for ND to go 11-1 and end up at #5 behind 13-0 Alabama, 13-0 Clemson, 12-1 Michigan, and 12-1 Oklahoma.
I personally would feel they got screwed, depending on the loss, but could at least see the logic behind it and wouldn't be too upset. Obviously the committee wants conference champs. I think Notre Dame has a better resume than Oklahoma, but if they beat WVU back to back weeks on the road then a neutral site, no real argument is there that they are somewhat deserving. Same with Michigan if they beat OSU and win the Big 10 (though the Big 10 West winner is likely to be borderline top 25).
If the final rankings turn out to be 13-0 Clemson, 12-1 Michigan, 12-1 Oklahoma and 12-1 Alabama who loses the SEC championship to UGA, then I will have some real problems.
This post was edited on 11/6/18 at 10:36 am
1
Posted on 11/6/18 at 10:48 am to lionward2014
Let’s say Notre Dame loses to Syracuse or USC, Alabama loses to Georgia, and no other surprises occur. Here are the basics according to my metric:
School - record - SOS rank
Notre Dame - 11-1 - 23
Oklahoma - 12-1 - 32
Alabama - 12-1 - 38
(This assumes Clemson, Michigan, and Georgia are the top 3.)
Tough choice for the committee. Based on this alone, Alabama is a clear odd man out unless we place literally any mathematical or rhetorical weight on margin of victory, in which case Alabama is a considerable selection. As for Notre Dame and Oklahoma, it’s a matter of how much you count the difference in winning percentage vs the difference in SOS, and there’s really no right or wrong there.
This is why I hate that there is a committee. It is entirely possible to employ a rigid, transparent, mathematical system of determining these things.
The main debate in such a system would be how to account for margin of victory. Simple, I say: don’t use margin of victory at all, but rather account for how much time of the game the winner held their final lead. For example, if you take the opening kick to the house and never look back, you get near-maximum MOV points since you led for 59:50 of the game. If you win in overtime, no MOV points since you led for 0:00.
School - record - SOS rank
Notre Dame - 11-1 - 23
Oklahoma - 12-1 - 32
Alabama - 12-1 - 38
(This assumes Clemson, Michigan, and Georgia are the top 3.)
Tough choice for the committee. Based on this alone, Alabama is a clear odd man out unless we place literally any mathematical or rhetorical weight on margin of victory, in which case Alabama is a considerable selection. As for Notre Dame and Oklahoma, it’s a matter of how much you count the difference in winning percentage vs the difference in SOS, and there’s really no right or wrong there.
This is why I hate that there is a committee. It is entirely possible to employ a rigid, transparent, mathematical system of determining these things.
The main debate in such a system would be how to account for margin of victory. Simple, I say: don’t use margin of victory at all, but rather account for how much time of the game the winner held their final lead. For example, if you take the opening kick to the house and never look back, you get near-maximum MOV points since you led for 59:50 of the game. If you win in overtime, no MOV points since you led for 0:00.
This post was edited on 11/6/18 at 10:52 am
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