re: 228% return in 3 months

You invest in something you know and he knows the market for agriculture. Your just getting beat because your not specializing in an area and doing the right amount of leg work. Take your five year trend and a market to how it did with similiar results during a similiar period where we were borderline recession. Problem though is you wont encounter a period when we were in a borderline huge recession since the 80's. Try comparing the data from from a similiar period since 2001 when we were on verges of real recessions and see how your market rebounded. If it held or grew when the economy was stalling, it will give you a clue to how it will respond in the future.

So to sum it up, find a similiar period of decline such as the one we are experiencing now. Preferably in the past five years and see which direction it turned. Of coarse, remember to check the financial returns and recent company news for additional clues.