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Posted on 10/31/17 at 9:15 am to Tshiz
2.4 (#1) Opp Yards/Rush
28.6 (#1) Opp Rushes/Game
68.1 (#1) Opp Rush Yards/Game
bama defense.
if anything 21 might be favorable for the bama side. using margin of victory, the number should probably be about 20; but factoring in an adjustment for the spread where bama is +6 and lsu -1 call it 3 pts. -23 to -23.5 seems appropriate imo
for what it's worth LSU is getting much more credit than other teams in the SEC. the problem is they just covered 5 tds vs tenn and should have against ark if not for a garbage td. lsu coming off two straight SEC covers when they trend more toward 50/50
28.6 (#1) Opp Rushes/Game
68.1 (#1) Opp Rush Yards/Game
bama defense.
if anything 21 might be favorable for the bama side. using margin of victory, the number should probably be about 20; but factoring in an adjustment for the spread where bama is +6 and lsu -1 call it 3 pts. -23 to -23.5 seems appropriate imo
for what it's worth LSU is getting much more credit than other teams in the SEC. the problem is they just covered 5 tds vs tenn and should have against ark if not for a garbage td. lsu coming off two straight SEC covers when they trend more toward 50/50
This post was edited on 10/31/17 at 9:38 am
Posted on 10/31/17 at 9:17 am to Tshiz
Last time we played Bama at Bama we lost by 21
Posted on 10/31/17 at 9:43 am to Tshiz
LSU lost to MSU and Troy. Alabama has been destroying people. LSU is inexperienced on Defense and susceptible to power run. Alabama's strength is its O-line and power run. On offense, LSU lacks the power run and relies on speed and mis-direction. Alabama is pretty fast and won't be beat often on jet sweeps.
Totally different teams. Didn't we have like 6 NFL draft picks on defense that are now gone, including some absolute studs, and we still lost - though mostly due to the inability of our offense to do a damned thing.
I think we will play inspired and make it "close" (10-13pts) but won't ever really have a chance to win. I hope I'm wrong though.
quote:
Lost last year 10-0. Can someone tell me what is THAT much different to add in the extra 11 points?
Totally different teams. Didn't we have like 6 NFL draft picks on defense that are now gone, including some absolute studs, and we still lost - though mostly due to the inability of our offense to do a damned thing.
I think we will play inspired and make it "close" (10-13pts) but won't ever really have a chance to win. I hope I'm wrong though.
Posted on 10/31/17 at 9:54 am to Putty
Seems to me according to this thread the only 2 games LSU has played is State and Troy. Do not the games since then matter? Do you think this LSU team will show up to T town and play like they did against Troy? This game keeps getting brought up as if it’s the only game that LSU has played.
Posted on 10/31/17 at 9:55 am to DEG
quote:
It's 100% market driven
No...
Posted on 10/31/17 at 9:57 am to engl6914
quote:
Odds are set so the gamblers betting will place half the total money on each team.
Just making shite up I see. Explain reverse line movement...
Posted on 10/31/17 at 10:07 am to Tshiz
Last year doesn’t matter. Jesus our fan base is abysmal.
Posted on 10/31/17 at 10:14 am to Baseball Tiger 17
quote:
Seems to me according to this thread the only 2 games LSU has played is State and Troy. Do not the games since then matter?
The games since absolutely matter. That's why the spread is not 40.
Posted on 10/31/17 at 10:14 am to mattgr1983
80% or so of the early money is on lsu (mostly at +21.5)
the line moves to -21, and possibly below to swing money back to the bama side.
the market is working as it should.
the line moves to -21, and possibly below to swing money back to the bama side.
the market is working as it should.
Posted on 10/31/17 at 10:15 am to engl6914
quote:
However, vast numbers of gamblers don’t follow LSU that carefully and don’t realize the current LSU level of play is diffferent than that appearing against Troy. Even a lot of LSU fans have trouble getting their minds around that fact.
Vegas couldn't care less about every Tom, Dick, and Harry that places a $50 bet for fun. They set their lines with concern over the guys that make a living doing this. Guys that will be betting thousands of dollars on a single game. Guys that know exactly what is going on with each team, and many times more than even the biggest "fan" of said team. The real gamblers have sources and they know injury reports that the general public aren't privy to. So when Vegas sets a line, it's a pretty good indication of how the game would play out on average if played multiple times.
Posted on 10/31/17 at 10:16 am to jtran1988
I'm a Tiger through and through....been one since listening to John Ferguson in the 60s...suffered through Cholly Mac's last few years; Bo Rein's death and Jerry Stovall's up and down seasons; Bill Arnsparger's rise and Mike Archer's fall; the 90s; LSU's reemergence under Nick and Les for the most part maintaining the status quo(yes he did!). Bo Schembechler's "ghost" coached the Tigers thru Miles. What undid Bo at UM undid Miles at LSU. Pretty darn good defense; no offense to speak of. Once Nick's recruits graduated/left, Miles tried to keep up and didn't do a bad job for the most part. But no offensive/defensive line recruits, lord knows no QB's to speak of, and, the BIG ONE he never got past the book entitled..."How to Play College Offense" by Knute Rockne (I don't know if that is a good example or not; at least he threw the ball!). Maybe not, but offense is what led to the firing of Les Miles (maybe his Timex he received from John Cameron Swayze had worn out as well....basically time management skills were somewhat lacking).
Posted on 10/31/17 at 10:26 am to Tshiz
They've outscored the rest of their sec opponents by 260 to 41 our something like that. 21 isn't a contrived number, and Vegas rarely screws up.
This post was edited on 10/31/17 at 10:27 am
Posted on 10/31/17 at 10:30 am to Tshiz
quote:
Can someone logically explain the -21 game spread?
its not worth explaining the spread to someone who does not understand how a spread works.
a spread is designed to encourage betting on both sides of the ledger.
if Vegas simply put the game at "-3" or "-7" then they would only get action on alabamas side.
vegas doesnt give a shite who wins this game, they only care about getting as many people to place a bet as possible.
Posted on 10/31/17 at 10:32 am to Baseball Tiger 17
quote:
Seems to me according to this thread the only 2 games LSU has played is State and Troy. Do not the games since then matter?
a one point win over a team that just fired its coach ,
a win in which lsu was down 20-0 at one point,
and a win over a rudderless program with an interim coach they have already made known they are not retaining.
yeah, those are some real feathers in LSUs cap.
Posted on 10/31/17 at 10:40 am to Tshiz
Weaker defense,no real experience at WR, OL and DL average at best, Average at best QB and haven't been that good on the road. So id say that's about right sadly 
This post was edited on 10/31/17 at 12:06 pm
Posted on 10/31/17 at 10:41 am to Tshiz
I would highly recommend you don't bet on this game if you don't know what you are doing.
With that said, tons of people who have no idea what they are doing are also betting on this game
With that said, tons of people who have no idea what they are doing are also betting on this game
Posted on 10/31/17 at 10:47 am to idlewatcher
ODDS are set largely on psychological bases and perception, not solely on math and they will change as the money flows.
Posted on 10/31/17 at 10:58 am to Tshiz
If you think OL/DL and QB win games in football you should not ask this question.
Posted on 10/31/17 at 11:27 am to 3D
quote:
Saban cant wait to shut down the jet sweep. Prob has 5 different ways to do it. What do we do then ?
Don't need 5.
Need one.
And they'll do it.
Beat the big Oline in front of them when the ball is snapped.
I'd be estatic if Canada didn't call first one all game.
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