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re: Chris Sale AL MVP chances
Posted on 8/14/17 at 5:02 pm to The Seaward
Posted on 8/14/17 at 5:02 pm to The Seaward
Baseball reference's
They also have a great example of why FIP is flawed.
FIP overvalues strike outs particularly when you base it on value added to a team.
Which is more valuable-a 3 pitch inning with 3 ground outs? Or 3 Ks after going full count?
One situation is going to lead to a better FIP however the other allows the pitcher to make it further in the game.
They also have a great example of why FIP is flawed.
quote:
I've crafted some admittedly extreme cases below to illustrate situations where the approaches differ. For most situations, FIP and Runs Allowed Average (RA, essentially what we use) will be very close and are strongly correlated, but there are a number of cases each year where there are large disparities between the two metrics.
Situation #1, Pitcher A throws a perfect game with 20 strikeouts, Pitcher B throws a perfect game with no strikeouts.
FIP: Pitcher A -1.40 FIP, Pitcher B, 3.20 FIP, RA: Pitcher A 0.00 RA, Pitcher B 0.00 RA.
FIP overvalues strike outs particularly when you base it on value added to a team.
Which is more valuable-a 3 pitch inning with 3 ground outs? Or 3 Ks after going full count?
One situation is going to lead to a better FIP however the other allows the pitcher to make it further in the game.
This post was edited on 8/14/17 at 5:04 pm
1
Posted on 8/14/17 at 5:11 pm to Adam Banks
FIP based WAR isn't perfect. Nor is RA-WAR. FIP gives pitchers no control for balls in play. That obviously isn't correct. RA gives pitchers all credit for balls in play. That obviously isn't correct. No one knows the exact amount that is the pitcher and the defense for balls in play. I typically like to average them.
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