re: Chris Sale AL MVP chances

Baseball reference's


They also have a great example of why FIP is flawed.

quote:

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I've crafted some admittedly extreme cases below to illustrate situations where the approaches differ. For most situations, FIP and Runs Allowed Average (RA, essentially what we use) will be very close and are strongly correlated, but there are a number of cases each year where there are large disparities between the two metrics.

Situation #1, Pitcher A throws a perfect game with 20 strikeouts, Pitcher B throws a perfect game with no strikeouts.

FIP: Pitcher A -1.40 FIP, Pitcher B, 3.20 FIP, RA: Pitcher A 0.00 RA, Pitcher B 0.00 RA.

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FIP overvalues strike outs particularly when you base it on value added to a team.


Which is more valuable-a 3 pitch inning with 3 ground outs? Or 3 Ks after going full count?

One situation is going to lead to a better FIP however the other allows the pitcher to make it further in the game.