fun debate....

Ok... I will cut it down... us Deaf folks are a little winded when we write.

Of course the more a person is on base the more runs he scores. There's no argument there. The OBP, though, is more influenced by the opposing pitcher than by the hitter himself. The pitcher either throws four balls intentionally or unintentionally, and the batter passively lets them go by and gets on base.

There is no guarantee, though, that there will be four balls to let go by. It is totally dependent on the pitcher, not the hitter, and the predictor must first be the pitcher's desire to walk the batter, or inability to keep from throwing four balls. If that does not happen, the OBP means nothing whatsoever.

We can argue to the cows come home, but let me just ask you this.. …

As for the hypothetical situations I mentioned..if you are coaching, and the game goes into the seventh inning, the opposing pitcher has not walked anyone. You have to pinch hit for one hitter who has struck out four times.

You have two players to choose from. One is a .330 hitter with a .430 OBP. The other is a .415 hitter with a .425 OBP.

Which one do you send out there to pinch hit?

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Posted by Mulerider

Member since Jul 2013

1615 posts

Posted on 5/31/17 at 9:19 pm to Bhs83

quote:
As for the hypothetical situations I mentioned..if you are coaching, and the game goes into the seventh inning, the opposing pitcher has not walked anyone. You have to pinch hit for one hitter who has struck out four times.

You have two players to choose from. One is a .330 hitter with a .430 OBP. The other is a .415 hitter with a .425 OBP.

Statistically driven outcomes are moot in any single situation. The jest of the analysis on OBP is spanned over a given number of games. In any one vs one situation the percentages are removed and it becomes a coin flip.

If I need a base runner, percentages say the .430 OBP is more likely to get on base than the .425 OBP. That is the whole intent of using that statistic. It tells you unequivocally which hitter is more apt to reach. Which is the better hitter in a single at bat in terms of getting a base hit is a different question.

quote:
There is no guarantee, though, that there will be four balls to let go by. It is totally dependent on the pitcher,

It's not dependent solely on the pitcher. The hitter and the ability of that hitter to control the strike zone, foul off pitches and understand the zone are intricate in drawing walks. You have heard the old cliche "working the count" or "tough out". That stems from hitters that are very difficult to induce to chase pitches or they don't often swing and miss.

Check your hitters and look at OBP and strikeouts to walk ratios. That will allow anyone to determine who the toughest outs are in any lineup. If a player walks more than they strike out then they are an upper level hitter.

If walking and getting on base were easy, everyone would do it. It's not. OBP is the king of statistics and scoring runs.

This post was edited on 5/31/17 at 9:21 pm

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Posted by Sasquatch Smash

Member since Nov 2007

24120 posts

Posted on 5/31/17 at 9:21 pm to Bhs83

quote:
The OBP, though, is more influenced by the opposing pitcher than by the hitter himself. The pitcher either throws four balls intentionally or unintentionally, and the batter passively lets them go by and gets on base.

BA = H/AB

OBP = (H + BB + HBP)/PA

Looks like the hitter has plenty to do with on base percentage, while also including things like sacrifices that will only hurt the percentage and not add to it.

Besides, discounting a player's ability to take a walk isn't very appropriate. Some hitter's have more plate discipline than others. A walk can't be put entirely on the opposing pitcher's "decision," a batter's ability to not be fooled on a pitch and swinging at junk is pretty big. And a hit by pitches seem to happen fairly frequently in softball, more so than baseball.

quote:
As for the hypothetical situations I mentioned..if you are coaching, and the game goes into the seventh inning, the opposing pitcher has not walked anyone. You have to pinch hit for one hitter who has struck out four times.

You have two players to choose from. One is a .330 hitter with a .430 OBP. The other is a .415 hitter with a .425 OBP.

Your hypothetical would depend on the situation entirely. Trying to start a rally? Trying to drive in someone that is already on base? Slugging ability of the hitters in question?

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