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I think a better question is what if Andrew Wood of Mafunktion and Mother Love Bone hadn't OD'd? His death is what caused Temple of the Dog to form, which launched Eddie Vetter and Chris Cornell to prominance and spawned Pearl Jam and later Soundgarden. Without these 3 bands, the grunge movement that Nirvana became the standard barer for doesn't materialize, and Metal continues to dominate rock. Nirvana becomes a niche Seattle band with STP. Without fame, Kobain never kills himself. Foo Fighters never forms. The entire course of music is irreperably altered.

This is a bit off but his death was bigger in the grand scheme. Temple was just a tribute band of some already huge Seattle guys. Vedder was asked to sing on one song and because of that it was packaged for masses with a video and released to radio. They all hit at nearly the same time. Soundgarden was around but without Wood dying, Vedder never really comes down to Seattle. Mother Love Bone would have been the big band but I can't see them lasting either. Wood was a junkie. Pearl Jam level fame would have destroyed him spectacularly.

By the time we in SETX and SWLA found Teen Spirit, all of these things had already happened except for Cobains death of course. It was all their for us to find. You just had to find it. Everybody had one guy in their group who had a Sub Pop tape. The rest found AIC. The movie Singles hit after that and that soundtrack sent people scrambling to find out who the rest of the people were.

Cobain not dying would have been interesting. He, like Wood, was a junkie. His fall would have been spectacular with loaded shows and public appearances and stories piling up. 30 years old is not very kind to any of us, certainly not a junkie. Nirvana would break up and Cobain would divorce. The only thing up for grabs is, do these events make him go to rehab or chase the dragon harder? I dont know if he had anyone in his life who could help him? There is audio of Neil Young in an interview. He says he was going to rach out to him but it was too late.

He goes to rehab? Then Nirvana returns for a reunion show/tour and Courtney OD's.