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re: Storm Aftermath - Hurricane Matthew will be Retired

Posted on 9/23/16 at 2:47 pm to
Posted by rds dc
Member since Jun 2008
20180 posts
Posted on 9/23/16 at 2:47 pm to
quote:


yeah, but now the Euro basically doesn't develop it. So all bets are off, really. It could become a deadly cat 5 or stay a weak wave and hit anywhere between South American and the Carolinas. I think they've got it narrowed down.


The 12z Euro is certainly a plausible outcome, esp. given how the last few seasons have gone. It races the wave westward into CA and that run would likely result in an EPAC system if it went out to 12 days or so.
Posted by rds dc
Member since Jun 2008
20180 posts
Posted on 9/23/16 at 6:04 pm to
Another crazy run for the GFS at 18z and won't post what it does after this:



Also, the 12z Euro didn't develop anything from P39L but somewhere b/w 1/3 and 1/2 of the 12z Euro EPS members develop the system. The D10 mean is a weak system in the WCAB, so that gives some hints about the members that do develop:

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