re: Hurricane Season - Nicole only 2nd Cat 3 for Bermuda

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that system (currently 99l) is kind of interesting because most of the models do have it developing into a system early next week, but they have it going anywhere from Texas to the Carolinas. Huge spread.

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It has been the prototypical wave of the past few seasons. Looked good coming off Africa, models too aggressive with development early on, NHC appears aggressive and then has to walk back chances, then it just hangs around not really doing much, then eventually might find better conditions off the SE or in the Gulf.

The convective pattern this morning suggest that dry air is still an issue. Shear also looks unfavorable in the near term. Biggest concern at this point appears to be it getting trapped under a ridge and stalling out along the northern Gulf. It will be a tricky forecast with an active WPAC causing downstream issues for the models.