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re: College Football Week 1/Futures Bet Thread
Posted on 8/13/16 at 10:21 pm to CtotheVrzrbck
Posted on 8/13/16 at 10:21 pm to CtotheVrzrbck
quote:
Just use your football knowledge and keep up w/ what's going on and you'll have a good idea what to play. Spreadsheets can't account for game day type variables.
Using plain "football knowledge" will get you beat in the long run. It might work in the short run for a random weekend in Las Vegas, but to have any chance whatsoever of grinding out a profit you need to have at least some hard numbers to go off of.
The main use of my spreadsheets is comparing previous spreads. I.E. how did Team A with a rating differential of XXX from Team B with the line at XXX line perform. I then calculate the profitability of the bet using that information. I.E. Team A, with a rating differential of Team B of XXX. So I look for all matchups in my database where teams were within 0.25 Standard Deviations of the ratings differential, with a line similar to the line posted, and calculate the results against said line.
So if the result is 11/20 ATS, thats 55%, minus 52.4% which is a profitability result of 2.6%. Or if the result is 18/20 against covering a 10 point teaser, that is 90%, 10 point teaser legs must hit at 81.8% to profit, so thats 8.2% profitability in a 10 point teaser.
It's very crude, and probably not worth much, but it at least gives me something concrete to go off of to counter my personal biases when analyzing a game.
Posted on 8/14/16 at 12:19 am to goldennugget
quote:
Using plain "football knowledge" will get you beat in the long run. It might work in the short run for a random weekend in Las Vegas, but to have any chance whatsoever of grinding out a profit you need to have at least some hard numbers to go off of.
Someone that has never watched a single NCAA Football game can make a really good profit if they have the right information. That information will probably cost money though and will not include a single football stat.
Posted on 8/14/16 at 12:13 pm to goldennugget
I can see how having past spreads and performance at your fingertips can be helpful.
It certainly helps get a bead on what the oddsmakers are favoring and that can be a nice edge.
It certainly helps get a bead on what the oddsmakers are favoring and that can be a nice edge.
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