re: Diagnose Bryce Harper?

quote:

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amazing for about the first 1.5 months

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It was really just a few weeks. He was hitting .323/.405/.855 (1.260) through April 24. Then went 2-8 against the Phillies, 0-11 against the Cardinals, and 3-13 against the Royals, before the Cubs decided not to pitch to him.

From that Phillies series through the end of May, he hit .189/.420/.326 (.747). Through yesterday, he hit .215/.372/.354 (.726).

A lot of it probably is mental. He's expecting to get nothing to hit, so tries to find that one pitch and destroy it. He's hitting fewer line drives and more fly balls.

But he's actually seeing more strikes this year than last, but swinging at many fewer, and not just marginal strikes. So, he's possibly being too selective.

One thing that really jumps out on his heat maps is that he did A LOT of damage last year on pitches up in the zone, but pitchers are owning him there this year, and he's not swinging at those pitches nearly as often.

It looks like a fascinating case study and I wish I had more time right now to digest it. Here are links to his 2015 and 2016 heat maps:

2015
2016