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re: Season Record Prediction Using Mathematical Analysis of Point Spreads 2015
Posted on 8/21/15 at 1:46 pm to chilge1
Posted on 8/21/15 at 1:46 pm to chilge1
quote:I hear you. It feels wrong. However, consider these statements:
I'm no statistician, but the way you did it just defies common sense, IMO.
By this rationale, a team who is favored 90/10 in each game they play should post a 11-1 record... which just seems odd to me, similar to the example I used earlier with FLA, SCAR, CUSE, and ARKY.
Even if statistically true, it feels wrong.
(1) To be 90% likely to win every game would require being a favorite in every game by 16.5 points. No team in the Power Five conferences is favored by at least 16.5 points in every game.
(2) That 10% chance of losing cannot be ignored. It literally means that a team is likely to lose 1 out of every 10 games. Thus a team who is favored 90/10 in each game is likely to lose a game if they play 10 games.
(3) You gut tells you LSU wins all four games against FLA, SCAR, CUSE, and ARKY. Me too. However, the odds say differently.
2
Posted on 8/21/15 at 1:49 pm to Salviati
quote:
(1) To be 90% likely to win every game would require being a favorite in every game by 16.5 points.
based on what equation?
quote:
That 10% chance of losing cannot be ignored. It literally means that a team is likely to lose 1 out of every 10 games. Thus a team who is favored 90/10 in each game is likely to lose a game if they play 10 games.
provided the teams are the same, the date is the same, and all other factors are identical for each of the ten games
quote:
. Me too. However, the odds say differently.
WRONG, again.
Posted on 8/21/15 at 2:08 pm to Salviati
quote:
(2) That 10% chance of losing cannot be ignored. It literally means that a team is likely to lose 1 out of every 10 games. Thus a team who is favored 90/10 in each game is likely to lose a game if they play 10 games.
See, this is the part I'm having a problem with. I look at it as you're favored to win 90/10 if you played the same opponent 100 times on the same day... but in reality, you only play them once. And can have only one of two results:
1-0
0-1
Then you move on to the next one... rather than the games building on each other. Again, using my earlier cause for confusion:
FLA - 80
SCAR - 70
CUSE - 90
ARKY - 65
You suggest that we'll go 3.05/4.00 = 3-1
My logic dictates that we'll go 1-0, 2-0, 3-0, and 4-0
Either way, 9-3 with room for movement in either direction is pretty much what we're looking at in August, so I can't take too much offense to your analysis.
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