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Message
re: OFFICIAL Week 1 College Football Bet Thread
Posted on 8/3/15 at 2:31 pm to the_watcher
Posted on 8/3/15 at 2:31 pm to the_watcher
quote:
quote:
although i will fade the hell out of a big public favorite
You realize Penn St. will be a big public favorite right? They are playing on the road and laying 7 points to a very experienced Temple team that returns 19 starters including all 11 defensive starters that produced a top 25 defense last season. This is an AWFUL spot for Penn St. 24th ranked D in 2014
i absolutely realize that, as well as some of my other picks week one. What i meant is i would fade a public fav thats laying a lot of points (30+) take the fla game for instance. But week one is different than any other week for me, i normally win more by betting on the righy favorites week 2. Plus penn state year 2 under franklin, returning one of the best qbs in college football. I will take them all day at 6.5
2
Posted on 8/3/15 at 2:38 pm to oleyeller
quote:
Plus penn state year 2 under franklin, returning one of the best qbs in college football
He threw for 2900 yards with 12 TD's and 15 interceptions last year. He was sacked 44 times. I'm not trying to be a dick just pointing out that those numbers in year 2 of his career make him no where near one of the best qbs in college football. Last year @ home against Temple he was 12-26 for 112 yards. He was actually far worse last year than he was as a freshman. Just pointing out facts that it seems you have obviously missed.
Posted on 8/3/15 at 3:12 pm to oleyeller
quote:
i absolutely realize that, as well as some of my other picks week one. What i meant is i would fade a public fav thats laying a lot of points (30+) take the fla game for instance. But week one is different than any other week for me, i normally win more by betting on the righy favorites week 2. Plus penn state year 2 under franklin, returning one of the best qbs in college football. I will take them all day at 6.5
I have never had a winning Week 1 since I started betting on CFB in 2011. In 2012 I had a very good opening Thursday Night, going 6-1 on my bets and hitting on a 3 team parlay and 6 team teaser, but I got over confident and pretty much gave it all back on Saturday. I made 3 large sized bets on Colorado, South Alabama and Western Michigan that all lost even though I hit the Ohio ML at +155 over Penn State.
Honestly Week 1 is like throwing darts. I think the best strategy from what I have found is to fade the public in Week 1 since Week 1 is all about betting the big name teams. That is where I have had my largest success in Week 1. It's when I try to get cute and look for the diamonds in the rough where I have failed.
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