re: Anthony Davis MVPs by 30 - O/U 1.5?

quote:

---

Actually the better correlation is win shares. This year will be no different.

---

Yup. Good point. But over the course of a 8 year sample, PER is the best predictor of MVPs. Injuries can eliminate the favorite any given year whereas a lower PER potential leaves you at the mercy of you being more healthy than other players.

Is AD injury prone? I think so. He's kind of soft about getting banged up but he doesn't exhibit bad knees or anything that would scare you about missing huge chunks. But he just has so much PER potential that its just a matter of finding a couple of injury-light years. I would project him playing 65-77 games per year and the years where he plays 75+, he should be the favorite for the MVP candidate(starting in 2 years if not next year- might need another Lebron birthday party)