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re: 2015 Season-Long Hurricane Thread - Watching Invest 96L
Posted on 8/1/15 at 5:57 am to baytiger
Posted on 8/1/15 at 5:57 am to baytiger
quote:
12Z GFS is significantly less exciting but it still has a system forming off Cape Verde late next week.
It just won't give up on this and it could possible be right. IIRC, the GFS was too strong with a lot of waves coming off Africa last season and it appears to be doing that again this season. I haven't seen any papers on that (I haven't really looked either) but I would guess that someone is working that.
There looks like there could be a brief window up until about the 7th or 8th and then the suppressed phase of the KW plus the El Nino background state should work together to basically shut down the E. Atlantic. However, the GFS seems to think that is crazy talk and keeps churning out CV systems all the way to 384
The El Nino killing fields are already going strong, so it would probably take something like an Andrew track to get a significant system into the Gulf at this point.
Posted on 8/2/15 at 5:36 pm to rds dc
From Crown Weather
quote:
Sunday 8/2/2015 - 6:25 pm ET/5:25 pm CT: I am closely monitoring the northeastern Gulf of Mexico this evening where I think we have a organizing and strengthening low pressure system that looks to me to be a classifiable tropical cyclone. This includes it has a well defined closed circulation, barometric pressures have fallen to about 1008 millibars and there are wind gusts to 40 mph along the west coast of Florida and across the Big Bend area of Florida.
The latest information can be read at LINK -…/ . Additionally, I am monitoring things extremely closely and will have further updates this evening as conditions warrant.
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