re: Mike and Mike posed an interesting question

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That illustrates my point. If anything, the likelihood of you making it on your 20th attempt is much worse than the likelihood of you making it on your 1st attempt. However, people are acting like they're guaranteed a make if they get enough shots.

It is the same misconception for the people that walk up and drop $500 on black in roulette after 9 straight red numbers. Surely the chances of it being red 10 times in a row are miniscule, ~.1%, but that doesn't mean shite for the 10th spin.

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People are treating the statistics of this as if each shot is dependent on the last shot, but it isn't. If you flip heads 9 straight times, the chance of heads on the 10th flip is still 50/50. If you miss the first 15 shots, your chances of making one in the last 5 certainly do not go UP.

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It reads as if you are on both sides of the fence here. Either the probability changes or it doesn't. Saying chances can only decrease is the same fallacy as thinking any shot is dependent on another. And just to be clear, I think it does.

I would say shots 6-10 will be your best bet as you have found the range and are not warn out or stressed.