re: Mike and Mike posed an interesting question

quote:

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That assumes you have a 2.5% chance of making one shot. I think that is a bit high, especially considering the pressure of the situation.

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I think it means you have a 2.5% chance to make 1/20, which I would say incorporates the other varaibles, as the amount of shots is known. Or said differently, you will achieve the goal for every 2 times you accept; you have a 50% chance of achieving the goal vs going to jail.

I dont think that is high by any means, and illustrates that this is an even wager.

And yes, each shot IS dependent on the last, this isnt a coin flip. The average guy that walks out to do this will likely be pretty tired by shot 20. The expected result is driven by historical performance, rather than available outcomes...free throw shooters, for instance, achieve their overall FT% from all of their shots, but you will certainly see variations in their splits (ie their percentage after a make/miss on first attempt). This just shows that expected results are dependent on external circumstances.