re: Marilyn vos Savant and the history of the Montel Hall question

The issue that is problematic is that most view this as a show of probability when it is more a show of profitability. Analytic thought process requires one to consider all alternatives including those outside the norm.

In some ways you need to understand this game show is like being at a casino. You are playing against the house and the game is rigged to ensure the house stays profitable.

There is a final component in this show - it is called profitability- Though the show is designed to be entertaining and on some level challenges the math component of our intelligence - ultimately this show is about marketing. IF the show is not successful in viewer ratings then securing sponsors would falter and the show would not be a business success.

The fact that this show has endured time indicates how strong the "house" component is integrated into the show.

A solid contestant could increase his odds of winning by never forgetting the show is designed for the house to not win but be profitable.

You gotta know when to holdem and when to foldem!