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re: Marilyn vos Savant and the history of the Montel Hall question
Posted on 2/23/15 at 4:29 pm to buckeye_vol
Posted on 2/23/15 at 4:29 pm to buckeye_vol
quote:
Conceptually and realistically (they've done extensive simulation studies) the odds are 66/33.
Hence my observation:
"With all that said, the explanation of the solution is provided in the article and there is nothing, that I know of, that any of us can do to refute the results."
The actual results are what they are. There is nothing to discuss, except conceptually with regard to one's view of the presentation of the choices made available to the contestant.
1
Posted on 2/23/15 at 4:33 pm to Monk
quote:I think I get what you are saying now. By conceptually, you mean our intuition to say 50/50? In this case, intuition would lead us astray.
The actual results are what they are. There is nothing to discuss, except conceptually with regard to one's view of the presentation of the choices made available to the contestant.
This post was edited on 2/23/15 at 4:34 pm
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