quote:
If you picked the car correctly (your 1/3 pick), you will now be given yet another chance to screw up and change to the wrong pick but this time you have a 50/50 chance instead of the "initial" 1/3 chance.

There is never a 50/50 chance though. Just because there are two options, doesn't mean their odds are equal. If you played this game enough times to get a large sample, you would win 2/3 of the time by switching.

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Posted by Monk

Baton Rouge

Member since Aug 2007

3660 posts

Posted on 2/23/15 at 4:29 pm to buckeye_vol

quote:
Conceptually and realistically (they've done extensive simulation studies) the odds are 66/33.

Hence my observation:

"With all that said, the explanation of the solution is provided in the article and there is nothing, that I know of, that any of us can do to refute the results."

The actual results are what they are. There is nothing to discuss, except conceptually with regard to one's view of the presentation of the choices made available to the contestant.

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Posted by Monk

Baton Rouge

Member since Aug 2007

3660 posts

Posted on 2/23/15 at 4:41 pm to buckeye_vol

quote:
There is never a 50/50 chance though.

This is where we begin to swim in circles and folks seem to forget what the article explains about the "initial" odds and the importance of their focus on the words "initial" and the significance of some viewing the test as a 2 step process versus a view of the whole game and the requirements placed on the Host.

The Host is forced to drop a goat. I can't imagine that a ton of people here would try to argue that you have a 2/3's chance of picking the car if you are only picking between 2 doors with one containing a goat.

The only way this puzzle works is because of the way it begins, with 3 doors and 2 goats. That's the beauty of it. In reality, you can't ignore the beginning regardless of what follows.

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