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re: Marilyn vos Savant and the history of the Montel Hall question
Posted on 2/23/15 at 4:15 pm to link
Posted on 2/23/15 at 4:15 pm to link
quote:Again this is a completely different game. I would say that your odds are 1/3 in this scenario because the car will remain 2/3 of the time. Since it has been randomized after that, and assuming the car is there you have 1/2 chance of winning. 1/2*2/3= 1/3
what about this
-make the initial pick
-host removes 1/3 of the choices
-then they mix up and randomize the remaining 2 choices. what are the odds you pick the car or goat?
The point of the problem is that the car never changes doors. Knowing that, the door you initially choose will never have more than a 1/3 chance.
1
Posted on 2/23/15 at 4:17 pm to buckeye_vol
Regardless of how far out you want to extrapolate it (1000 doors, etc.), if you NEVER change your pick, Monte will always eliminate everything EXCEPT 1 car and one goat, leaving you with a 50/50 shot.
Likewise, if you change your pick EVERY time Monte exposes a new goat, he's still going to leave you with a 50/50 shot in the end.
Likewise, if you change your pick EVERY time Monte exposes a new goat, he's still going to leave you with a 50/50 shot in the end.
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