re: Marilyn vos Savant and the history of the Montel Hall question

quote:

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Thanks Monk for proving my point.

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Thanks, but I think you made your point about as clearly as can be done in this situation. I just tried to conceptually elaborate on what I thought was your point.

I can't really say that the original solution involves treating it as one game or running "it all together as one multi-stage probability exercise."

In the linked article, they explain that
"The short answer is that your initial odds of winning with door #1 (?) don’t change simply because the host reveals a goat behind door #3; instead, Hall’s action increases the odds to ? that you’ll win by switching."

To me, they are admitting that the "initial" 1/3 odds do not change simply by dropping the goat. I read it has saying that the Host allows you an extra chance of winning by giving you another bite at the apple when you consider that the Host will never drop a car so you effectively get a 2nd chance to pick the car, with 1 less goat to choose from.