re: UPDATED: SEC team capable of winning the West with 2 or 3 SEC losses per year?

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The other teams are certainly improving, while it appears LSU is remaining stagnant. Is that a case of more parity in the SEC West? I'd have to look it up but I'd assume it's an outlier when a team wins the SEC with <1 loss. If the low end is 1.5 w/that high of a probability then it seems like it will take a special season to win the SEC, let alone the West, given how much the overall division has improved.

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Yep. That analysis combined with this thread shows that the SEC as a whole, particularly the SECw has gotten much better the last 5 years.

However those are total wins, it would be interesting to do the same report just with conference games, and I think it will show that LSU has slipped slightly while other teams have gotten better.

With a 95 CI on the low end of 1.5 losses, I think you're right, it will be extremely difficult for LSU to win the west going forward at this point. For example, last year we had all that NFL talent and still lost 3 games. I think we would need a historic level team to be able to compete strongly for the west going forward under Miles.