re: Democrat base in North Carolina ..

quote:

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We're seeing the demonizing backfire.

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Nope. Not true.
And in NC Tillis and the GOP have done a very bad job of countering it. Could have made Hagan look like a blithering fool.
They didn't.

Hagan's internal polling has her ahead a couple of points. In contrast with public polls, they had her ahead far enough to allow her to skip her final debate. Have no contact with Tillis' operations this go around, so I don't know what their take is. There has also been recent shady support of Sean Haugh to ensure he finishes strong, almost certainly Dem manipulation.

In NC, Democrats were concerned about turnout.
Early voting seems to have put those concerns to rest. Dems lead Republicans 48% to 31% in early voting, and their vote totals are up as well. Number of Dem votes is up 10% vs GOP down 19% (as compared to the same point in 2010).

Hagan has literally done nothing except rubberstamp Reid initiatives. Nothing. Tillis has done nothing significantly good or bad. So this election turns more on relative statewide party strength as opposed to the candidates themselves. Dems put on a basic, standard campaign. Expected lines. Expected Commercials. Expected talking points. Republicans sucked in response, basically they did not respond at all. Tillis might still win. I'd give him slightly better than even odds. But his team has played very poorly.

Two things in his favor. (1) The incumbent Hagan has not been close to 50% in polling. Not normally a harbinger for re-election. (2) Libertarian Sean Haugh has consistently polled in the 10% range. Question being, will some of those votes slip toward Tillis in the end. If Tillis pulls half of those, odds are far better that he wins.