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Message
re: Facts from Peer Reviewed Medical articles about Ebola
Posted on 10/16/14 at 11:09 pm to TutHillTiger
Posted on 10/16/14 at 11:09 pm to TutHillTiger
quote:
On the basis of the initial periods of exponential growth, the estimated basic reproduction numbers (R0 ) are 1.71 (95% CI, 1.44 to 2.01) for Guinea, 1.83 (95% CI, 1.72 to 1.94) for Liberia, and 2.02 (95% CI, 1.79 to 2.26) for Sierra Leone. The estimated current reproduction numbers (R) are 1.81 (95% CI, 1.60 to 2.03) for Guinea, 1.51 (95% CI, 1.41 to 1.60) for Liberia, and 1.38 (95% CI, 1.27 to 1.51) for Sierra Leone; the corresponding doubling times are 15.7 days (95% CI, 12.9 to 20.3) for Guinea, 23.6 days (95% CI, 20.2 to 28.2) for Liberia, and 30.2 days (95% CI, 23.6 to 42.3) for Sierra Leone.
This is the key info right here and shows WHY it won't take off in the US. If the R0 is sitting at around 1.5 in Africa it will be under 1 in the US, more likely it will be closer to zero here, and we have NOTHING to worry about.
Posted on 10/16/14 at 11:18 pm to lsu480
In English please. (LOL) I get what u r saying but air travel and cities with millions and 100k at a football game dont occur too often in the the affected areas of Africa either.
Posted on 10/16/14 at 11:21 pm to lsu480
The media has everyone here panicked. I came down with a virus around 3 1/2 weeks after coming home from Cameroon. Our vet heard I wasn't feeling well and next thing I know I'm getting calls from a local doctor. I had to explain to them I am 2000 miles away from the nearest outbreak. I told the doctor he is actually closer to Ebola here in the US than I am, in Africa. It was a short conversation.
Posted on 10/16/14 at 11:41 pm to lsu480
The R0 decreases in 2 out of 3 of those countries is good news. Maybe they're starting to get their shite together.
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