re: Update pg 23: Russia,IMO, will default on its sovereign debt within six months

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What factors lead to their vulnerability as of late?

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Pride. The Russians have felt disrespected by the rest of the developed world since the fall of the Soviet Union.

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How would a Russian default impact America or Western Europe?

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It will mainly affect the European banks that didn't learn a lesson from the 1998 Russian debt default and loaned Russia and Russian banks money again. Other than that, not much. Russia doesn't manufacture much of anything for export. When was the last time you went into a retail store and saw "Made in Russia" printed on the box?

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What will Moscow do to counter this or prevent this from occurring?

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Blame the foreigners for loaning them too much money. The danger, as I see it, is Putin might try to distract the Russian people's attention away from their financial woes by finding an excuse to move into the Baltics relying upon the immense emotions of nationalism that is happening in Russia today.