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re: Myth of arctic meltdown: Satellite images show summer ice cap growing
Posted on 8/31/14 at 12:39 pm to Cruiserhog
Posted on 8/31/14 at 12:39 pm to Cruiserhog
quote:\
see the difference in the sources within the article, one uses 'friends of science' and a pr piece one uses actual scientific research like below, the actual video abstract with, color me shocked, actual information about the science literature and the actual consensus.
It's obvious that most scientists believe that the earth is warming and that some can be attributed to human beings; that's a pretty reasonable premise.
But this whole 97% consensus number is problematic for a number of reasons.
First, the premise is that A. Earth has been warming and B. humans played some role. This is a pretty easy standard to reach, but more importantly, that allows for a huge discrepancy within that "consensus" (i.e., humans could have caused anything above 0%).
Second, the consensus of humans should not be evidence of scientific truths. It doesn't matter if 0% or 100% of scientists believe one thing or another, that doesn't make it so. Sure the more evidence there is, the more they should subscribe to a hypothesis or theory; however, subscribing to the theory does not strengthen the evidence of that theory.
Finally, the methodology of the consensus studies are suspect. This is social science research and their survey methods and analyses as well as rating methods are not anywhere near best practice. Furthermore, there are a number of statistical techniques grounded in psychometric theory that they could have used to account for these flaws but they chose not to use these. It was pretty poor research on their part.
This post was edited on 8/31/14 at 12:42 pm
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