re: Current housing surge vs. last decade's housing surge

if employment holds, there is no bubble.

if people are out of work, there will be a new flood of foreclosures. and a burst is inevitable.

a prediction of bubble is essentially a prediction of the labor market in an area.

i recommend that people quit looking at price increases and looking at job bubbles. is there an industry that can potentially suffer in the short term future? is a region/city heavily affected by this workforce? if yes, there is your bubble.

if you are looking for whether to make an investment into an area, follow the jobs forecasting and make sure that the employment sector is not in for a downfall.

i know that this is more of a demand side view of real estate. but developers do their homework on absorption rates and zoning trends. demand drives this bus. over-suppy is more of an indicator of how big a bubble bust drives prices down.