re: Fantasy Board Regulars 2014 Thread

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Colin Kaepernick, San Francisco 49ers
Current ESPN live draft ADP: 70.1
Current ESPN live draft positional rank: No. 11
TFS positional rank: No. 9

Kaepernick has a path to become a top-three fantasy quarterback. He was a low-end QB1 last year (253 points, ranked ninth) despite some meager passing volumes. He had only 432 pass attempts (ranked 21st), 151 vertical pass attempts (ranked 16th) and only 21 passing touchdowns (ranked 17th).

All of those aerial numbers should trend upward now that the 49ers will have a full year of Michael Crabtree, and added Stevie Johnson to the group that returns Anquan Boldin and Vernon Davis. It would take only an increase of 10-15 percent over this past year's passing numbers to give Kaepernick 40-60 more passes, 300-450 more yards and two to three more touchdowns. Add those to what he posted in 2013, and it could be enough to give him the 30 or so fantasy points he needs to move up to high-end QB1 status.

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Montee Ball, Denver Broncos
Current ESPN live draft ADP: 24.5
Current ESPN live draft positional rank: No. 13
TFS positional rank: No. 6

The Broncos won't be able to lean on the pass as much this year because they face an incredibly tough pass defense schedule. They will need Ball to step up and be a bell-cow back, and all the signs point to his being ready for this task.

One important sign is his improvement in GBYPA. In Weeks 1 through 12 last season, Ball posted a mediocre 5.1 GBYPA, but in Weeks 13 through 17 he racked up an impressive 8.8 GBYPA. Another sign is Denver's superb run blocking. The Broncos generated a 48.8 percent GBR, which tied for second in the league, and that was without three-time Pro Bowl left tackle Ryan Clady. Clady will be returning from the foot injury he suffered in Week 2 that ended his 2013 campaign.

Maybe most important, Ball has shown tremendous improvement in pass blocking. This means Denver can trust him to protect Peyton Manning and therefore can make him a true three-down back. All of this should lead to the Broncos having an overall better offense this year, and to Ball vying for a spot among the top fantasy running backs.

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Chris Johnson, New York Jets
Current ESPN live draft ADP: 53.2
Current ESPN live draft positional rank: No. 22
TFS positional rank: No. 16

Last year, Johnson suffered a torn meniscus in Week 3 and yet still ended up with a solid GBYPA (7.3, ranked tied for 23rd out of 47 qualifying backs) and was a low-end RB1 in fantasy football (189 points, tied for eighth).

The Jets may not use him as a bell cow, but it would take a roughly 30 percent decrease in his fantasy point production to drop him down to his current RB3 ADP level. That could happen if Chris Ivory holds up for an entire season, but Ivory has dealt with several different injuries, which is why Ivory had tallied only 347 carries in his college and pro careers up until last year.

Look for a healthy Johnson to shoulder the load for this offense and post RB2, and maybe even low-end RB1, numbers.

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Darren Sproles, Philadelphia Eagles
Current ESPN live draft ADP: 96.8
Current ESPN live draft positional rank: No. 34
TFS positional rank: No. 25

Sproles is rightfully known for his pass-catching ability, but last year he posted a very respectable 8.0 GBYPA. As noted above, Philadelphia had the best run-blocking wall in the NFL last season, and should contend for that honor again this year.

Kelly is looking to increase the Eagles' offensive tempo, and brought Sproles in to handle some of the additional rush and pass attempts. All of this should lead to an improvement upon Sproles' 2013 fantasy performance that saw him post midrange RB4-caliber numbers (90 points, ranked 36th) and yet his ADP does not reflect this.

He's an RB3 who can currently be taken as an RB4, and therefore is currently a terrific value pick.

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