re: Preview: Alabama vs LSU – Sat 12 (CSS/CST) | Sat 7 (No TV) | Sun 1 (CSS/CST)

Friday's Pitching Matchup:
UA - Jr. RHP Spencer Turnbull (5-4, 2.38 ERA, 72.0 IP, 47 H, 19 ER, 37 BB, 54 K, .190 OBA, 1.17 WHIP)
LSU - Jr. RHP Aaron Nola (7-1, 1.58 ERA, 85.2 IP, 51 H, 15 ER, 22 BB, 102 K, .173 OBA, 0.85 WHIP)

Saturday's Pitching Matchup:
UA - Jr. LHP Justin Kamplain (4-3, 3.59 ERA, 67.2 IP, 52 H, 27 ER, 24 BB, 59 K, .216 OBA, 1.12 WHIP)
LSU - Fr. LHP Jared Poché (6-3, 2.58 ERA, 69.2 IP, 56 H, 20 ER, 23 BB, 43 K, .227 OBA, 1.13 WHIP)

Sunday's Pitching Matchup:
UA - Jr. RHP Jon Keller (5-2, 2.60 ERA, 65.2 IP, 56 H, 19 ER, 16 BB, 47 K, .239 OBA, 1.10 WHIP)
LSU - Fr. RHP Alden Cartwright (1-0, 1.69 ERA, 26.2 IP, 19 H, 5 ER, 7 BB, 20 K, .202 OBA, 0.98 WHIP)

Relief Pitching:
The bullpen isn’t the strongest aspect of this Alabama club, but Gaspard hit a home run when he inserted true freshman Thomas Burrows into the closer role. Twice named SEC freshman of the week, the southpaw Burrows has recorded 9 saves and a 0.90 ERA in a team high 20 appearances. Burrows has only allowed 14 hits in 30 innings pitched. His mixes a 90mph fastball, curveball, change and his arm angle is really deceptive hiding the ball from hitters. Burrows was named to the NCBWA Midseason Stopper of the Year Watchlist, and left-handed batters are just 2 for 27 (.074) facing Burrows this season. The bullpen as a whole is very young due to a couple of guys like Kamplain moving to a full time starter role, but they have done a fairly solid job this season.

Top Bullpen Arms:
Fr. LHP Thomas Burrows (20 app, 4-1, 9 saves, 0.90 ERA, 30.0 IP, 14 H, 3 ER, 7 BB, 29 K, .146 OBA, 0.57 WHIP)
Sr. RHP Tucker Hawley (11 app, 3-1, 1.32 ERA, 34.0 IP, 23 H, 5 ER, 7 BB, 22 K, .197 OBA, 0.88 WHIP)
Fr. RHP Nick Eicholtz (18 app, 3-1, 2.49 ERA, 47.0 IP, 31 H, 13 ER, 26 BB, 37 K, .190 OBA, 1.21 WHIP)
Jr. RHP Jay Shaw (17 app, 2-3, 3.58 ERA, 27.2 IP, 27 H, 11 ER, 13 BB, 15 K, .257 OBA, 1.45 WHIP)
Fr. RHP Geoffrey Bramblett (15 app, 4-1, 3.71 ERA, 34.0 IP, 24 H, 14 ER, 15 BB, 38 K, .202 OBA, 1.15 WHIP)
So. RHP Ray Castillo (14 app, 1-0, 4.18 ERA, 32.1 IP, 33 H, 15 ER, 18 BB, 22 K, .266 OBA, 1.58 WHIP)

Alabama Offense: (LSU numbers in parentheses)
Team BA: .282 (.274)
Team OBP: .355 (.360)
Team SLG: .399 (.387)

The Alabama offense doesn’t have a ton of star power, but these guys get the job done in different ways. Their 34 home runs is 2nd most in the conference and 15th in the country. Ten different players have gone yard for the Tide and six players have 4 or more HRs. Mikey White is the hottest hitter on the team hitting .525 over the last 5 games despite the team dropping 4 of those contests. White has secured the leadoff spot and developed into the leader of this club as just a sophomore. The leading hitter on the team is the lone senior Austen Smith. The first baseman Smith is batting .347 on the year, has left the yard 6 times, and leads the team in walks and OBP. Ben Moore leads the team with 7 long balls and sports a solid .313 average. Wade Wass, who mixes between catcher and DH, is 4th in the SEC with 17 doubles on the season. There are just 2 leftys, Salem and Hughston, in the Alabama lineup.

As a group, this Crimson Tide offense strikes out at a ton. With 172 strikeouts in 24 games, Tide hitters are punched out more than 7 times per SEC contest, about 2 more per game than LSU on average. On the bases, the Tide runs at an alarmingly low rate. Alabama has only attempted to steal 44 bases in 49 games. Their 31 successful stolen bases ranks dead last in the SEC and 255th in the country. The leading base stealer is outfielder Ben Moore with 8 on the season.


Alabama Projected Lineup:
1) SS Mikey White (.302 avg, 7 2B, 2 3B, 5 HR, 27 RBI, 37 R, 20 BB, 30 K, 3-5 SB)
2) CF Georgie Salem (.297 avg, 9 2B, 3B, HR, 17 RBI, 26 R, 8 BB, 27 K, 6-9 SB)
3) RF Ben Moore (.313 avg, 11 2B, 3B, 7 HR, 31 RBI, 37 R, 13 BB, 14 K, 8-10 SB)
4) DH Wade Wass (.300 avg, 17 2B, 3B, 4 HR, 28 RBI, 26 R, 21 BB, 43 K, 2-2 SB)
5) 2B Kyle Overstreet (.294 avg, 5 2B, 3B, 4 HR, 27 RBI, 32 R, 17 BB, 22 K, 0-1 SB)
6) 1B Austen Smith (.347 avg, 10 2B, 6 HR, 33 RBI, 25 R, 24 BB, 31 K, 5-6 SB)
7) LF Casey Hughston (.265 avg, 5 2B, 3B, 4 HR, 20 RBI, 13 R, 5 BB, 42 K, 0-2 SB)
8) C Will Haynie (.179 avg, 2 2B, 3 HR, 12 RBI, 14 R, 5 BB, 47 K, 0-0 SB)
9) 3B Chance Vincent (.253 avg, 5 2B, HR, 23 RBI, 19 R, 12 BB, 20 K, 1-1 SB)

Other Contributors:
OF Hunter Webb (.282 avg, 3 2B, 7 RBI, 10 R, 7 BB, 10 K, 5-6 SB)
3B Daniel Cucjen (.265 avg, HR, 4 RBI, 9 R, 9 BB, 8 K, 1-2 SB)

Defense:
Alabama is fielding .971 as a team, which is just below the SEC average. They have turned 43 double plays as a team to LSU’s 31. Middle infielders Mikey White and Kyle Overstreet have combined for just 12 errors on the season for a tremendous .975 FLD% between them. The 3rd baseman Chance Vincent leads the team with 15 errors. Alabama as a team has committed the 2nd most errors in SEC games this season. Both Tide catchers, Will Haynie and Wade Wass, have thrown out around the same number of base stealers and combine for a 36% throw out rate between them. LSU catchers throw out runners on 42% of steals, and the team is fielding .973 as a group.

Season Stats
Roster
Schedule (via Warren Nolan)

Media Coverage:
TV: Friday – none; Saturday – CSS/CST; Sunday – CSS/CST
Online: Friday only – GeauxZone video; Saturday and Sunday - espn3.com and the watchESPN app
Radio: 98.1 FM (check your local listings) all 3 games; audio always available through the GeauxZone


PREDICTION: Well it is Nola’s last home start and you can expect him to be (his version of) fired up for this one. Hopefully the rain stays away this weekend and we can get all of these games played on schedule without affecting the pitching situation. I feel like Nola will dominate and go the distance this time. Should he not make it the distance and he comes out for a courtesy warmup/gets pulled, the crowd ovation will be a special one, similar to what Katz and Rhymes got to enjoy last season. Either way, Nola gives a performance that gives LSU the boost needed for victory in game 1. Despite all that, we have a series to win and I think Poché gets the job done on Saturday to clinch. Sunday, I think will lean toward Alabama, but if LSU can get a few clutch hits, something good could be brewing in the home stadium.
Fri: Bama 1, LSU 4
Sat: Bama 3, LSU 5
Sun: Bama 5, LSU 3