re: BOIL has become predictable

Great writeup on the history and evolution of HH

Marcellus gas is a game changer. At first glance, one would think it would flatten out the seasonal curve, but all that gas has to find a home during the shoulder and summer months, so it reintroduces seasonality, just for different reasons that we've historically seen. Marcellus production floods the market in the summer, depressing prices, but gets sucked up in the NE during winter, lifting prices. The latter part of that is the real question, because we didn't see much "lift" in NYMEX futures last winter, despite historically high consumption.