re: BOIL has become predictable

I think July is becoming more questionable, at least by July expiry, but with respect to shorting the paper, the month of July has little to do with the various etf and etn prices at that point.

There is a lot of future's monies on the sidelines right now. UNG backwardation would not be factual today, instead it would be a contangoed roll of near months contracts into higher priced 2 mos out contracts.

The market will eventually, I hope at least, understand that even with lower stored levels, the present pricing model is unsustainable. I think the money on the sidelines has figured it out. The bulls are largely hoping that the replenishment numbers keep getting compared to 5 year's ago. I would hope smarter head prevail. My bet is against the popular sentiment of today. It remains to be seen if fundamentals and adults win the day. They don't always in the commodities markets. The argument, ongoing, has always been chart readers outperform those that trade on fundamentals. This argument is especially strong in the futures market.