re: Apple up over 10% and $47 since last week....what do we see first $500 or $400

I'm not an expert by any means, but from what I can gather the technical analysts essentially have a method to draw a line pretty much anywhere on the chart. You have these fib levels, your various moving averages, trendlines, etc. So, at any given time they can say "look for such and such when the stock approaches price X", and X can be anything.

In the case of PM, what stands out to me is the "double top" where it tried (and failed) to get very far above $96 twice in the last month. To the technical analyst (TA here on out), this looks like strong "resistance", and now does not appear to be a good time to buy for a mid to long term position. However, another thing that stands out is that PM has been getting strong "support" from the 50-day moving average, having bounced off of it 3 times since February, and is as of today possibly bouncing for a 4th time.

So, as a novice TA, I would say that if PM dips down below the 50-day MA in the next couple of days ($92.50 or so), then look for it to make a considerable move further down. If it instead bounces back up in the next few days back toward $96, then that would be the next time to watch. The support and resistance will continue to "squeeze" the chart into that pennant pattern. Generally, whatever happens in the days following PM either breaking above $96, or below the MA, would be an indication to the TA as to the direction of the next short/mid term trend.