re: Is Davis a disappointment?

Do you want want with the analysis results below. Some will pick on them, and it is far from conclusive, but it's an accurate description of the association between some box score stats and game outcomes.

I took the top minute-getters since Gordon’s return (Aminu, Anderson, Davis, Gordon, Lopez, Vasquez) and looked at the correlation between several stats reported in the standard box score (not just minutes played) and the outcome of each game in that span of time.

Below are the most significant results of the study, ignoring the double-dips (e.g. when defensive rebounds couple, then significance of total rebounds, if present, is redundant). The team’s record during this span in the games in which the player recorded time is listed by each player’s name.

Aminu (12-14): The results are not terribly surprising. Aminu’s defensive rebounding and scoring couple significantly with victory. That’s about it. That’s not to say that he shouldn’t try to do anything else . . . the results may fail to hold if he leaves the `footprint’ the data has established.

Anderson (13-14): Something a little more interesting here. Anderson’s made three’s couple significantly to victory, as does the associated percentage. The more surprising result is that his number of free throw makes and free throw attempts are negatively correlated with victory; the make rate does not matter. These facts likely combine to mean that a team that forces Anderson inside the arc more often is more likely to win that does so less often, even at the cost of a foul.

Davis (13-14): The result shows that Monty is correct . . . lower minutes for Davis correlates with victory. This is not to say the Hornets will win more games if they continue to reduce Davis’ minutes. It doesn’t work that way. Other stats, such as free throw makes and free throw attempts, are negatively correlated with victory, but they all simply reflect that they tend to increase as playing time increases.

Gordon (10-10): The most significant thing Gordon does in terms of fueling wins is keeping his turnovers down, with more assists and higher free throw percentage contributing as well. Keeping his three pointers lower is a help, as well.

Lopez (13-14): More offensive rebounding by Lopez leads to more victories.

Vasquez (13-14): Not surprisingly, his scoring correlates to victory. Same with steals; his contributions here matter. More surprisingly, his assists are not correlated with victory, and his turnovers are not negatively correlated with victory (actually the correlation is positive, just not strong).

There’s some interesting stuff here, some of which confirm observations recently. Keep in mind, the absence of a factor likely means that it does not correlated to victory. For example, Lopez’s blocks do strongly affect the game. As long as he keeps doing what he’s doing, operating at the `upper end’ of his offensive rebounding range is what he can do to most help the team succeed on the court this season.