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re: Investing Advice for a Noob
Posted on 2/2/13 at 1:22 am to Janky
Posted on 2/2/13 at 1:22 am to Janky
quote:
I would say the idea that indexing always wins, no matter what time period was proven wrong. No?
Not quite, but close.
It isn't true that indexing always wins. It is true that it is better than something like 95% of non-indexed funds, and there's no known way to know ahead of time which are the 5% that are better.
Given that indexing isn't hard, it's a solid strategy that does better than average for minimal cost.
Especially now that indexing has become so popular there are some pitfalls but that is a separate subject. If you stick the the original idea though it's pretty good IMO.
1
Posted on 2/2/13 at 2:59 am to foshizzle
Which is all i was trying to say but i decided to go get drunk. I almost added in the part of the thesis where they debated what happens when everyone "catches on" to indexing. Thanks for adding that in foshizzle.
Ifs all about the odds and the lack of having hindsight. Apparently i could not convey 95% to 5% odds through a message board.
And sorry we parsed "always." I look at 95% and call it always because for all practical purposes if i have a 95 percent sure thing im not taking the 5.
Eta: i still see yall "proved" your point using perfect hindsight again, which is fine. In fact jm not sure there is a way to defeat the argument without using hindsight, since all data instantly becomes known/historical. I beat LSURussian in day trading all the time using hindsight
The sarcasm could have been left outside the discussion.
Ifs all about the odds and the lack of having hindsight. Apparently i could not convey 95% to 5% odds through a message board.
And sorry we parsed "always." I look at 95% and call it always because for all practical purposes if i have a 95 percent sure thing im not taking the 5.
Eta: i still see yall "proved" your point using perfect hindsight again, which is fine. In fact jm not sure there is a way to defeat the argument without using hindsight, since all data instantly becomes known/historical. I beat LSURussian in day trading all the time using hindsight
The sarcasm could have been left outside the discussion.
This post was edited on 2/2/13 at 3:14 am
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