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the Mad Hatter and Moneyball
Posted on 11/8/12 at 2:33 pm
Posted on 11/8/12 at 2:33 pm
Interesting article on why it's safer to be daring and not conservative when calling plays: LINK
Perception being what it is (almost never accurate in terms of reality), I love the theory that going for it more often than not will lead to wins and championships. There was a piece on HBO’s Real Sports sometime back about a high school coach (Texas, I think) that never punts (except in extreme cases) and constantly wins championships. I’m a believer and that’s why I love it when Les Miles gets aggressive. I think we lost to the Gumps when he played it safe at the end of the game and ran the ball on 3rd and 6ish in the 4th quarter (not to mention the Prevent D). I say when your QB and receivers are manning up all half and treating Bama like a bunch of school girls, let the MF throw the ball downfield instead of playing it “safe” and losing.
Thoughts on this theory?
Perception being what it is (almost never accurate in terms of reality), I love the theory that going for it more often than not will lead to wins and championships. There was a piece on HBO’s Real Sports sometime back about a high school coach (Texas, I think) that never punts (except in extreme cases) and constantly wins championships. I’m a believer and that’s why I love it when Les Miles gets aggressive. I think we lost to the Gumps when he played it safe at the end of the game and ran the ball on 3rd and 6ish in the 4th quarter (not to mention the Prevent D). I say when your QB and receivers are manning up all half and treating Bama like a bunch of school girls, let the MF throw the ball downfield instead of playing it “safe” and losing.
Thoughts on this theory?
2
Posted on 11/8/12 at 2:37 pm to bayuborn
Except Chip Kelly's offense dies against a D with a pulse. See them in the BCS a couple years ago against an average D in Auburn and against our D last year. Their O is only sexy when the D is blah.
Posted on 11/8/12 at 2:41 pm to bayuborn
Agree 100%.
Not only would they have gotten the fist down but maybe even a 6 if they would have went for it on the 4th and 6. I think ODB could have been open in the back of the end zone because Alabama would have been worried about the 6-10 yard pass. How awesome would that have been?
Not only would they have gotten the fist down but maybe even a 6 if they would have went for it on the 4th and 6. I think ODB could have been open in the back of the end zone because Alabama would have been worried about the 6-10 yard pass. How awesome would that have been?
Posted on 11/8/12 at 4:22 pm to 08Tiger
+1
I said at the time that we were going into "milk the clock" mode one first down too soon. (I was scared of their 2-minute offense, especially after what happened at the endof the first half.) After running it on first down, and Bama taking that time out, I would have gone play action on 2nd down, with Bama perhaps expecting us to run it again and run more time off the clock. And, yes, I agree that we should have gone for it on 4th and 6, expecially given the way Mett had been carving up their D. Then we could have run the clock out in victory formation. Sigh.....
I agree that being aggressive is generally the right mindset. The onside kick was the right call and would have worked if we hadn't touched it early. On the other hand, the fake FG was a bad call, in that situation. The Spencer Ware fourth down play was the wrong play, but I don't question the decision to go for it in that circumstance.
This was one of those games where the effect of every such decision was magnified ten-fold, like Saban's decision on that pass that Reid intercepted last year when his running game was starting to get traction. I'm sure he was kicking himself after that one as much as Les has to be kicking himself over some of this calls in this year's game.
I said at the time that we were going into "milk the clock" mode one first down too soon. (I was scared of their 2-minute offense, especially after what happened at the endof the first half.) After running it on first down, and Bama taking that time out, I would have gone play action on 2nd down, with Bama perhaps expecting us to run it again and run more time off the clock. And, yes, I agree that we should have gone for it on 4th and 6, expecially given the way Mett had been carving up their D. Then we could have run the clock out in victory formation. Sigh.....
I agree that being aggressive is generally the right mindset. The onside kick was the right call and would have worked if we hadn't touched it early. On the other hand, the fake FG was a bad call, in that situation. The Spencer Ware fourth down play was the wrong play, but I don't question the decision to go for it in that circumstance.
This was one of those games where the effect of every such decision was magnified ten-fold, like Saban's decision on that pass that Reid intercepted last year when his running game was starting to get traction. I'm sure he was kicking himself after that one as much as Les has to be kicking himself over some of this calls in this year's game.
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