re: Crackpot ASOIAF Theories SPOILERS

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Would Covington do all of this for a Blackfyre?

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He has to believe Aegon is a Targ. That would be difficult to pull off telling the Golden Company leader that Aegon is a Blackfyre and Covington that he is a Targ. Then getting the GC leader to help with Covington faking his death. Those two would have had a conversation.

Unless GC leader was in on the lying to Covington.

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Varys had been adamant about the need for secrecy. The plans that he and Illyrio had made with Blackheart had been known to them alone. The rest of the company had been left ignorant. What they did not know they could not let slip.

This is almost certainly the "contract in blood" that Illyrio mentions -- so it was likely signed by Varys, Illyrio, and Blackheart Toyne. Most of the believers in the Blackfyre theory think that the Golden Company rank-and-file have no idea about the secret, as Griff himself says, the secret would get out. Harry Strickland may not even know. So the important question is why Blackheart Toyne would participate in this deal. And the most salient feature of House Toyne is that they've had a century-long grudge with House Targayen. From the wiki:

Ser Terrence "was found abed with one of King Aegon the Unworthy's mistresses. Even though they proclaimed love, Aegon had them executed. Toyne was dismembered piece by piece, while the mistress was forced to watch before meeting her own death. Ser Terrence's brothers attempted to avenge him by killing King Aegon, but were stopped by Prince Aemon the Dragonknight died defending him instead, and they paid for their treason with their lives. This event was key in the downfall of House Toyne."

That happened ages ago, you say? Well what about Simon Toyne, "the leader of the Kingswood Brotherhood, an outlaw organization that operated during the reign of Aerys II," and killed by Barristan Selmy?

And of course we have Blackheart Toyne at the head of the Golden Company. (EDIT: As ungoogleable says below, "He likely fought in the War of the Ninepenny Kings to put Maelys the Monstrous on the Iron Throne. He took over the Golden Company after Maelys was killed by Barristan. If anybody who isn't a Blackfyre is likely to be a Blackfyre loyalist, it's Myles Toyne.") Does it seem at all likely that this man would sign a secret contract in blood, a decade ago, pledging the Golden Company to restore Rhaegar Targaryen's son to the throne?

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