re: Crackpot ASOIAF Theories SPOILERS

More evidence that Serella is Alleres the Sphinx...

In Feast, Sam gets to Oldtown to tell the Citadel (Per Maester Aemon's request)..

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Samwell then tells Alleras the story of how he reached Oldtown, leaving out only the promises he was sworn to keep. After hearing all that had transpired, especially Maester Aemon's plea that the Citadel learn of Daenerys, Alleras tells him to forget the Seneschal. The Archmaesters will believe little of what Sam has to say, but there is one who will- Archmaester Marwyn

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Then...

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To this, Archmaester Marwyn reveals how fickle and treacherous prophecy can be, but he is still intrigued. He makes it clear to Sam that Maester Aemon may have been killed by the Archmaesters had he spoken his mind to them. When Sam inquires why, Marwyn replies, "Who do you think killed all the dragons the last time around? The world the Citadel is building has no place in it for sorcery or prophecy or glass candles, much less for dragons. Ask yourself why Aemon Targaryen was allowed to waste his life upon the Wall, when by rights he should have been raised to archmaester. His blood was why. He could not be trusted. No more than I can."

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Apparently, the Citadel wants the Dragons destroyed again, to keep magic away. Alleras, who intercepted Sam brought him somewhere else. We know Dorne wants Dany and the dragons in Westeros. Alleras keeps him from revealing all to the Citadel.