re: Crackpot ASOIAF Theories SPOILERS

I was rereading the chapter with Barristan's fight with the pit fighter. Before the fight, he reminisces about the great tourney at Harrenhal. That Varys was whispering in the ear of Aerys about how Rhaegar was conspiring to depose him and was using the tourney to meet with all of the other great lords of the realm.

Was Rhaegar conspiring, he tells Jaimie that changes will made (before he sets off for the battle at the Trident) and he meant to do it a lot earlier. Rhaegar was closer to the Kingsguard, other major lords, and the common people than Aerys was. Aeyrs had not left the Red Keep since Duskendale, and was known to be crazy. I think that Rhaegar could have disposed Aerys without to much trouble.

However, what if Rhaegar was not conspiring; what if Varys was lying; why would he lie? I think that this gives more credence to the idea the Varys is/or is working for the Blackfyre because he wanted to make the Seven Kingdoms more unstable by getting rid of the Crown Prince and keeping the crazy King in charged with only young,and crazier, Viserys as heir. Varys could have put himself as Regent(or more likely the person who controls the regent from the shadows). The realm would be unstable looking for a leader, an before unknown Blackfyre could have brought everybody together.