re: 2012 TDBL Offseason Thread: Draft Scheduled for March 21st

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Damn, not very high on Desmond Jennings, is he?

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As you draft and you're deciding between two players, ask yourself: What's more likely to happen? When we all got together for the rankings summit, I was incredulous that the group wanted to rank Brett Lawrie many slots ahead of Kevin Youkilis at third base.

I understand Youk has injury issues and Lawrie lit it up last year. Could Youk get hurt again and it turns out Lawrie is Ryan Braun? Of course.


Brett Lawrie's too sexy for my roster, too sexy for my roster, too sexy by faaaar!
But what's more likely to happen? That Youkilis, whose underlying numbers all seem mostly intact and has been a great hitter for multiple seasons at the big league level, gets back to being an elite fantasy third baseman? Or that a rookie with 150 total at-bats in the majors continues to crush? Lawrie is a hoopy frood who really knows where his towel is. I get it. And he will steal, which has value.

But let's check out two players:

Player A: .333, 23 runs, 8 HRs, 20 RBIs, 14 SB.
Player B: .160, 21 runs, 2 HRs, 5 RBIs, 6 SB.

Player A is Desmond Jennings over his first 141 at-bats last season. Player B is Jennings over the next, and final, 106 at-bats. We used this example on our podcast. Anyone can look good for 150 at-bats. It's a very small sample size. Lawrie (and Jennings) will both be very good major league players, probably as soon as this year

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