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Where is this market going?
Posted on 6/26/10 at 12:17 am
Posted on 6/26/10 at 12:17 am
Do we double dip or is this a "L" shaped recovery with a inventory cycle bump like the 2002-2003 recovery?
I'm not sold on a double dip, yet the ECRI numbers are hard to ignore.
I'm not sold on a double dip, yet the ECRI numbers are hard to ignore.
4
Posted on 6/26/10 at 4:00 am to layingpipelikeDB50
I think we got a head fake or two left in us before we go down to 9,000 by years end. Investors see the housing market falling apart next year and will start taking money out IMO. I could even see us below 8500 but I hope to hell im wrong.
Posted on 6/26/10 at 2:02 pm to layingpipelikeDB50
quote:
Where is this market going?
Down by the end of the year. With the Bush tax cuts expiring, increased costs related to the HCB, increased business costs associated with more bureaucracy/the Financial Bill and more toxic assets going belly up, I'm not seeing much light at the end of the 2010 tunnel.
Posted on 6/26/10 at 4:07 pm to davesdawgs
What toxic assets to you see going "belly up" aside from some CRE? Loan-loss provisions peaked in Q1 at most banks and it appears that credit has turned the corner but that's just my thoughts.
Posted on 6/26/10 at 4:13 pm to layingpipelikeDB50
Down and then up and then down.
Posted on 6/26/10 at 5:03 pm to LSUtoOmaha
Are we talking about the economy or the stock market? Did the OP look at my post from last week about the ECRI numbers?
Posted on 6/27/10 at 6:31 pm to kfizzle85
Have housing values reach rock bottom yet?
Posted on 6/27/10 at 9:10 pm to urinetrouble
I think that answer is pretty obvious.
Posted on 6/27/10 at 10:21 pm to kfizzle85
quote:
I think that answer is pretty obvious.
Umm, I'm not a wonk for this kind of stuff, but it sure seems like we are close to the bottom, but the premise of the thread was whether or not the market was still declining, so.... enlighten me to which answer is so obvious, O mighty one.
Posted on 6/27/10 at 10:35 pm to urinetrouble
Are you asking about the market or about housing prices? Your question was about housing prices, that's what I responded to, not whether or not the market had reached a bottom of some sort. I don't feel like you need to be a "wonk," just pay attention to some widely followed indicators like the case shiller (as an example), which I think pretty clearly identifies that we're not done with declines. If you're not following that, [in]arguably the most widely followed national housing index, what are you basing your opinion on?
Posted on 6/27/10 at 11:22 pm to kfizzle85
quote:
Are you asking about the market or about housing prices? Your question was about housing prices, that's what I responded to, not whether or not the market had reached a bottom of some sort. I don't feel like you need to be a "wonk," just pay attention to some widely followed indicators like the case shiller (as an example), which I think pretty clearly identifies that we're not done with declines. If you're not following that, [in]arguably the most widely followed national housing index, what are you basing your opinion on?
I guess my opinion was based on solely on media chatter, which probably isn't very reliable. However, I don't think most common people are aware of the index you referenced (as I wasn't). Thanks for pointing it out to me, though.
Looking at the latest Case-Shiller graphs it seems like we hit rock bottom a year ago, although despite the recent rise, there appears some stagnation or even further weakening. No???
What's the difference between the index level and %cyha? It might help if I knew what cyha meant.
Posted on 6/27/10 at 11:49 pm to urinetrouble
IDK, link the chart. My guess is that it is referring to year-over-year change (which is a dramatically different looking chart). The index is typically shown in base form and in YoY% form. I wasn't trying to be offensive btw.
Posted on 6/28/10 at 6:17 am to kfizzle85
Posted on 6/28/10 at 8:15 am to urinetrouble
Going nowhere for the next couple years.
A bunch of glimmers of hope, but we aren't going anywhere.
A bunch of glimmers of hope, but we aren't going anywhere.
Posted on 6/28/10 at 9:11 am to TheHiddenFlask
quote:
Going nowhere for the next couple years.
I kinda agree. The housing market, I believe will take a double dip, the $8000 credit expiring will only help this happen. But the maket itself will likely be range bound. If the GOP has landslide victories in 2010, it will likely pop upwards. But as there policies get Vetoed, it will ensure that the damage being done now is simply sustained. Unless Obama continues the Bush tax cuts, the economy will remain bad. There is a chance that the tax cuts remain, but there seems to be too much looting by the Dems to get us out of the funk, and the market just predicts the funk.
Posted on 6/28/10 at 11:41 am to urinetrouble
Yeah that's "% change, year ago." They're just overlaying the first chart so you can see the absolute value versus the change in that value over the past year.
Posted on 6/28/10 at 11:43 am to ANAKINSKY
Yes, electing Republicans will definitely fix the problem, otherwise its teh end of the world. Gtf back to the poliboard with that partisan shite.
Posted on 6/28/10 at 11:48 am to kfizzle85
quote:
Yes, electing Republicans will definitely fix the problem, otherwise its teh end of the world. Gtf back to the poliboard with that partisan shite.
I think it would probably be a bad thing if Obama didn't lift the tax cuts and continued to finance his 4 year national strip club tour with debt.
Posted on 6/28/10 at 2:10 pm to kfizzle85
thats funny, its just like a lib to think there is no relationship between the markets and the dumb fuk policies of the socialist, and BTW GFY.
Posted on 6/28/10 at 2:20 pm to ANAKINSKY
quote:
Where is this market going?
thats funny, its just like a lib to think there is no relationship between the markets and the dumb fuk policies of the socialist, and BTW GFY.
Both of us are VERY conservative.
So, fail.
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