Kelly's Tenure: Outperformance vs. Underperformance

Judging in terms of material outperformance / underperformance against expectations going into a game as well as how big / important the game was. I count 5 overperformances vs.9 underperformances where we were all genuinely shocked and/or very disappointed at the results.

Outperformance:

#7 Ole Miss (2022) - Very solid Ole Miss team that we beat by 25
#6 Bama (2022) - 14 pt dogs. Great win
@ #21 Missouri (2023) - Won by 10 points against a solid Missouri team on the road
#9 Ole Miss (2024) - Gutsy win where I think Kiffin was genuinely outcoached in the 2nd half
@ #4 Clemson (2025) - I know they are bad now, but this was still a gutsy win and overcame the opening week hump

Underperformance:

FSU (2022) - we were favorites, but we lost in a huge season opener
Tennessee (2022) - destroyed
A&M (2022) - destroyed
FSU (2023) - lost by 21 even though we were only slight dogs. Another opener
USC (2024) - Were favorites and lost by a touchdown. They ended up being bad this year too
A&M (2024) - Got our arse beat. Kelly had no answer
Alabama (2024) - Holy
Florida (2024) - Pitiful coaching performance. Lost to an unranked UF team by double digits.
Vandy (2025) - Technically we were dogs, but truly felt like a "must win" and Kelly was purely outcoached against a less talented team

Caveats: I didn't include Bama 2023. We were decently sized dogs and Daniels was knocked out early 3rd quarter, that's tough. Also I think Ole Miss in 2023 we were slight dogs as well. Lost on last play of the game. Also didn't include Ole Miss 2025. While sort of disappointing, they are a solid team, it was a close game on the road.