Official Australian Open Thread

Not optimistic on getting a sticky for this.

I'll make sure to bump with updates.

Feel free to drop predictions. Tennis.com is expecting a Monfils-Murray, Nalbandian-Federer semis, with Murray over Fed in the final.

I'm a little pissed b/c I have been high on Murray since the US Open series last year when he won back to back tourneys in July, then all of a sudden he makes the finals of the US and the whole world is picking him to win the Aussie. I still like Murray, but I hate picking conventional favorites (Murray is the favorite among Aussie bookies)


Here's my take:


First Quarter: Nadal is the top seed, and at first glance his quarter is not very imposing. You have a weak 6 seed in Simon (yes, he beat Federer several times last year, but he's never made it past the 3rd round of a major) and a list of guys Nadal has made kitty litter out of in the past. But beware of a couple of names: Lleyton Hewitt is here, unseeded and flying under the rader, and in his home country expect magic. If he can beat Gonzo in Rd 1, look out. I look for Nadal to meet Gasquet in Round of 16, and I think Gasquet pulls of the upset. He's too talented not to make a run at a major soon, and I think it's this one. In the bottom half, I like Monfils: he's young, fast, and makes you earn every point. The slower, livelier courts in Melbourne are meet for his sliding, skidding style. However, Ivo Karlovic, the big serving Croat, may have something to say about that. I like Gasquet to win this quarter (I have a fetish for his backhand)

First Quarter Winner: Richard Gasquet


Second Quarter: The two big dogs here are Andy Murray, the odds on favorite despite being the 4 seed, and Jo Willifried Tsonga, last year's dark horse finalist who has erupted as the top French pro. I don't see any way Murray doesn't make the quarters...his draw is too easy. The top half is icing soft, and Murray should coast. (unless the sprightly Kei Nishikori, the tiny Japaneese sensation, can chop away at Murray in the 3rd Round). The bottom half is a different story. The match I'd love to see is James Blake/Ernests Gulbis in the Third Round. Gulbis is a talent to behold, a young gunner who gave Djokavic fits in the US Open last year, and beat Blake in Cincy last year. I think the winner of this match beats Tsonga, and faces Murray in the quarters. Give me Murray v. Blake, and despite my love for Blake, he cannot overcome Murray, who is drooling at the bit.

Second Quarter Winner: Andy Murray


Third Quarter: The second most difficult draw. Roddick is the 7 seed, but I have lost all faith in ARod and think he loses in the third round to upcoming American, Sam Querrey, in a bitter passing of the torch. Querrey has a tough first rounder against Phillip Kolschreiber, but I like Querrey...he's tough, big, and he is the fastest improving player in American tennis. However, he'll lose to David Nalbandian in the fourth round. Djokavic hasn't been at his best lately, but his draw isn't bad. Look to see if Mardy Fish as the 23 seed can recreate his US Open run from last year and put a shot in the arm of US tennis. He and Marcos Baghdatis could have one of the more spirited matches in the third round if they each pull off a couple of tough victories. Djokavic meets Nalbandian in the quarterfinal, where he wins to continue on in defense of his title.

Third Quarter winner: Novak Djokavic


Fourth Quarter: the toughest, deepest draw. It'll be tough for Federer to make it through when he faces names early like Carlos Moya, Marat Safin, and fellow countryman Stanislas Wawrinka. Still, Federer is the most magical player in the world; he makes the quarterfinal in the bottom half. In the top half, I think we see the most exciting matches of the tourney. Juan Martin Del Potro is the best young player in the world. He was dominant in the US Open series for a month last year. He's scary good, and his Third Round match w/ Feliciano Lopez could be an epic. Marin Cilic, Jarko Tipsaravic, and John Isner are all dangerous in the top half, and I like Del Potro to face and defeat Cilic in the 4th to face Federer in a fantastic quarter. Here is the match I am most looking forward to: Del Potro v. Federer. I love Federer, and I think he wins two majors this year...but the Australian is not it.

4th Quarter winner: Juan Martin del Potro

So our semis are Gasquet v. Murray, and Djokavic v. Del Potro. Notice that there is no Nadal or Federer in a semifinal for the first time this millennium, it would seem (actually probably closer to 2002 or 2003, I don't feel like checking). I'll keep it simple: Murray wins (he's flat out better than Gasquet), Djokavic wins (Del Potro worn out after grueling victory over Federer), setting up a rematch of Cincinatti last year. Nothing changes: Murray wins. He's a better player, and he's hungry. I hate the vogue pick, but he's been my pick for 5 months and I'm not changing it now.

Australian Open Champion: Andy Murray