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Started By
Message
Initial Jobless claims 208k today
Posted on 5/2/24 at 6:06 pm
Posted on 5/2/24 at 6:06 pm
So after 6 weeks of it being exactly 215k, last week intial claims dropped to 208k now this week its exactly 208k again
Contuining claims came in exactly at 1.774 again
This is statisically impossible
Danielle DiMartino says the BLS is straight up lying
Do we think there will be a blowout BLS # tomorrow?
Contuining claims came in exactly at 1.774 again
This is statisically impossible
Danielle DiMartino says the BLS is straight up lying
Do we think there will be a blowout BLS # tomorrow?
Posted on 5/2/24 at 6:22 pm to SDVTiger
US government agencies are incredibly lazy with their bullshite statistics. A good bullshitter will at least throw in some variance.
Posted on 5/2/24 at 7:13 pm to TheWalrus
The best part was the MSM was starting to call out that 215k number then it dropped to 208k
Posted on 5/2/24 at 7:46 pm to SDVTiger
The USDA will do “forecasts” where they keep some numbers exactly the same for like ten years. Not very helpful.
Posted on 5/2/24 at 9:13 pm to SDVTiger
quote:
This is statisically impossible
Everything the FedGov says is a lie - every department is corrupt and they rely on a sycophant corrupt media to propagate their lies.
Posted on 5/3/24 at 1:01 am to SDVTiger
quote:
This is statisically impossible
No it’s not, and you’re the one making up numbers. It was 5/6 weeks at 212k, and that was only the seasonally adjusted numbers. The state by state variation and the non-seasonally adjusted numbers were much different.
Also, the last time a similar streak happened was under Trump, but I don’t recall the claims of BLS making things up back then.
This post was edited on 5/3/24 at 1:17 am
Posted on 5/3/24 at 3:54 am to SDVTiger
No way Biden lets anything slip too bad until election. I mean after all inflation is definitely under control and he has the nation on the right track.
Posted on 5/3/24 at 7:30 am to FLObserver
quote:
inflation is definitely under control
*transitory
Posted on 5/3/24 at 7:41 am to slackster
quote:
No it’s not, and you’re the one making up numbers
How am I making up numbers
175k jobs today well below expecations
Posted on 5/3/24 at 8:05 am to SDVTiger
quote:
How am I making up number
Your OP was false. It wasn’t 6 straight weeks of the same number and you also had the number wrong.
Seems pretty obvious you made it up.
Posted on 5/3/24 at 8:16 am to slackster
Im sorry it was 212k not 215k. Cry all you want. You even bring up Trump
quote:
The last 13 weeks of initial unemployment claims. It finally moved off 212k, but barely. Again, we are a $30 trillion economy with over 160 million workers. Unemployment insurance is a state program, meaning there are 50 states with 50 rules, 50 different ways to sign up, and 50 websites. Filling out these forms takes work. That alone should give a variability of more than a thousand or two a week. Unemployment insurance is highly seasonal; little things like a holiday on the week make a difference (see around Feb 16, President's Day, and March 29, Easter). Yet, given all this, these numbers barely move. I'm not accusing anyone of anything. Rather I would like someone from the BLS (who collects the data, seasonally adjusts it, and releases it) to offer an explanation for the lack of volatility.
Posted on 5/3/24 at 8:20 am to SDVTiger
quote:
Im sorry it was 212k not 215k.
And it wasn’t 6 straight weeks.
quote:
You even bring up Trump
I pointed out the last time we saw very little movement on the numbers was during his term, but I don’t recall any accusations of just making it up around here.
Posted on 5/3/24 at 8:22 am to slackster
quote:
And it wasn’t 6 straight weeks
Yeah it was like 11 weeks
Posted on 5/3/24 at 8:32 am to SDVTiger
quote:
Yeah it was like 11 weeks
See, like I said, making up numbers.
Posted on 5/3/24 at 9:46 am to slackster
quote:
And it wasn’t 6 straight weeks.
5 of 6. But still, 5 of 6 weeks with the exact same number isn't statistically very improbable? And I just went through the 4 years of Trump, and I'm not seeing any 6 week times that look similar to that .
Posted on 5/3/24 at 10:03 am to LNCHBOX
quote:
And I just went through the 4 years of Trump, and I'm not seeing any 6 week times that look similar to that .
7/15/17-8/19/17
245k
249k
245k
254k
245k
245k
Also had a 245k on 6/10. 4 of 6 weeks were the same, and the next week was 247k, a 2k difference.
ETA- the culprit in both cases is the extreme smoothing that seasonality factors create. The raw numbers are as volatile as you’d expect them, but seasonality is designed to smooth things out the same way levelized utility billing does.
This post was edited on 5/3/24 at 10:24 am
Posted on 5/3/24 at 10:12 am to LNCHBOX
quote:
But still, 5 of 6 weeks with the exact same number isn't statistically very improbable?
According to slackster it is cause Trump
Posted on 5/3/24 at 10:21 am to SDVTiger
quote:
According to slackster it is cause Trump
You’ve proven multiple times on this board that your ability to reason and/or think critically is nil, so I’m not terribly surprised you’re having such a hard time with this one.
Posted on 5/3/24 at 10:37 am to slackster
Your response is one time where the numbers were the same week to week
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