re: Forecaster who hasn't missed a presidential prediction in 40 YEARS reveals prediction

quote:

---

The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.

Joetato

Third party:

There is no significant third party or independent campaign.

Ummm...RFK is a legit candidate

Short term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.

He might want to check the news today.

Long term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.

Ummmm...

Policy change: The incumbent administration affects major changes in national policy.

Yes, but they've pissed off a lot of people

Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term.

Ummm....

Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.

Hunter Biden, call on line 2.

Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.

Ummmm....

Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.

Ummm...

Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.

No.

Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national he

Trump my be divisive, but you cant say hes not charismatic

---