re: Forecaster who hasn't missed a presidential prediction in 40 YEARS reveals prediction

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Long term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.

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Policy change: The incumbent administration affects major changes in national policy.

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Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term.

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Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.

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Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.

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Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.

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Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.

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Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national he

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