re: AI is taking all our jobs!!! Oh wait...payroll beats estimates at 303K

quote:

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Will we grow the economy at insane rates and produce 50% more than we produce now while keeping everyone employed? Or will we keep production as it is now and need a lot less people to power the same economy

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I don't think it's that extreme, certainly not over a short time horizon. I actually think the OP's sentiment isn't all that silly. I have paid attention to the subject for the past 10 or so years and used to be way more worried. All the hype revolving around transformers and LLMs went nuts over the past year or so, but Machine Learning has been a field for much longer than that.

One great example is radiology. Seven years ago, Geoffrey Hinton (leading AI researcher who quit Google last year to warn the world about AI), said radiologists would be replaced within five years and that we should stop training them. That hasn't happened, and I'm glad we didn't listen.



My suspicion is that over time, you could see the impacts felt but as you also mention, it could be a productivity enhancer. But industries and companies, even in the economy that is by far the most technologically dynamic of any of the world's major economies, simply don't change that rapidly. So people should be able to adapt. You're going to need humanoid robots with "true" AGI (whatever that really means) for human labor to become truly obsolete across multiple sectors of the economy. That'll take a while to get to, if we even do that before nuking ourselves.