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re: McMahon has the basketball program poised to make a quantum leap next season

Posted on 2/29/24 at 9:14 am to
Posted by Alt26
Member since Mar 2010
28595 posts
Posted on 2/29/24 at 9:14 am to
I sincerely hope you are right. But this is a LOT of optimism without a ton of objective basis to support it.

quote:

Matt Mahon program begins to step up its recruitment


Many keep saying this, but seem to completely ignore that his very first signing class at LSU (at this point) was still his best class. It's not like he brought in no one for two years and is just now starting to get the recruiting going. In fact, you can make an argument it's getting a bit worse relative to that first class. Currently he has two signees. BOTH are top 100 guys (which is great). But they may not be that in the final rankings as both have been dropping a bit.

McMahon hasn't done a bad job of HS recruiting at LSU. He's signed (currently) 5 top 100 players. For context, Wade signed 6 in his first 3 seasons. Arguably that has been the most encouraging part of his tenue.

quote:

if he can add a couple more 4 stars in late signing a solid foundation will be there .


He mentioned before this season he wanted to get "older". That's part of the reason why all of his transfers were 3,4, 5 year players. He comes from a mid-major background where older players win. So I'd be a little surprised if he brings in another HS player. Particularly when he's shown some reluctance to play them early unless he has no choice (Ward and Phillips didn't get significant minutes until very late last season; Chest is redshirting this year).

quote:

We cannot always project the minds of 20 year old athletes but it seems the players have bought into McMahon's system and he wont lose any key players to the portal.


Like you said, I don't think we can ever project the minds of 20 year olds. On the surface you don't look at a guy on this team and think he's definitely out. But in the freedom-of-transfer era teams are having, on average, 3-4 players transfer OUT a year. Some are role players looking for more minutes. Some are entrenched starters. Thus, it's hard to say "this guy certainly isn't going anywhere". Contrary to the popular belief of some on here, the college basketball recruiting world is very seedy. Even more so than football. Only now you have "tampering" in the transfer market every bit as much as you've had "negotiations" in the HS recruiting market. College players see themselves now as perpetual "free agents". If a player on LSU's team is performing well you can bet other coaches see it too and (behind the scenes, of course,) may be inquiring whether a guy might be considering transferring. That's just the way it is. If you aren't "scouting" potential transfers then you aren't doing your job.

quote:

If McMahon can bring in a hammer or two from the portal like Mark Sears , Dalton Knecht or Tari Eason to combine with the core group this program will easily be a top 25 program.


That's been a place of struggle besides KJ Williams. However, following last season's disaster he had very little positives to sell to potential transfers. That's why most of the transfers were Louisiana players. "Home" was the selling point as much, if not more than LSU.

Assuming he can get a couple of wins on the way in he should have a lot more positivity to sell to potential transfers. So it is entirely possible this could be his best transfer class of his tenure thus far (we'll see)

Even with the improvement since Jan. 1, LSU is still ranked 11th of 14 in the predictive data metrics. Some will probably say "that doesn't matter". But that data has been a pretty good predictor of success/strength of team since its introduction (which is why the NCAA uses it as an aspect of it's selection criteria). So it's hard to say LSU is "poised to make a quantum leap" next season. Particularly when you consider success in this era can drastically change from year to year (Missouri and South Carolina) are great examples of that.

I think the fairest thing to say is that LSU should have much more momentum going into this offseason than they had going into last offseason. Hopefully that will produce better results. I think you can also see McMahon seems to be finding more of a level of comfort in the SEC. Last year he seemed perpetually timid and robotic. This year you have seen some more emotion out of him and he seems a little more at ease when he speaks. That, in and of itself, doesn't mean he's poised for great success. But I do think he was trying to carry on the success LSU had in the years before he took over rather than being himself. Right, wrong, or indifferent, every coach has to be himself and not try to someone he's not. It is already, but next year there will be no doubt this is fully HIS program. Either he starts to produce (within reason) or it will be time for the powers that be to consider whether or not the program is progressing towards any degree of great success.
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