re: So did the fed really fix inflation or did the supply chain problem etc just fade out

quote:

---

That said, I am still not sure the rate hikes really did that much to curb inflation, and think it was more the covid money and supply disruption stopped.

---

It’s hard to have a discussion on the topic when there is a misunderstanding about the terms used. So let me say- prices are stupid high. I don’t like paying them. The dog food I buy is about 60% higher than it was in 2019. Basic stuff is up about 30-60% it seems. So yeah, I roll my eyes too when I hear 3% or 6% inflation.

But that’s not how the govt calculates it. They take a broad “basket” of items and calculate how much the price CHANGES month over month.
The groceries we buy can or cannot be included in the calculation depending on the reporting metric. This also applies to gasoline. Thus the metric called Core CPI which is also known as “CPI ex. Food and Energy” meaning it doesn’t factor in the change in prices of the food you buy or the gasoline you use.

Home prices and used car prices make up a heavy weighting in the calculation of inflation. But the govt doesn’t pull home prices from Zillow or ask realtors what they’re pricing houses at. You wanna know how they calculate the heaviest weighting in the inflation calculation?? They literally call random homeowners across the country and ask them what they think they could rent their house for. I’m not making this up. It’s called Owners Equivalent Rent (OER) and it plays a huge factor into the reported inflation. Go Google it, you’ll see what I mean. There’s more I could go into, but I’ll leave it here for now.

I remember the days when The Fed was begging for inflation and it just wouldn’t happen.



Since 2008 we didn’t really have any inflation, at least that people noticed.

Also…